No transit referendum for now. Hurry Up and Wait?!

JeffS
02/15 01:51 AM

They’re already too late. I think we can assume it will just never happen. As much as I want it developed, there’s also the knowledge that if residents cared about transit they wouldn’t have moved to the land of sprawl.

hackles10
02/15 12:04 PM

Its going to be a long long time before this area has mass transit.  I would wager a guess of sometime around 2030.  I just hope that they connect Downtown Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill.  Handle the North Raleigh to Cary corridor and attach RTP.

Lucius
02/15 05:38 PM

Charlotte spent time and energy in a campaign to inform the public about the importance of public transit and that was crucial in the winning of their referendum.  If they were to offer a referendum now that people can see the success of the system, they’d probably win 85% of the vote.  Art Pope, John Locke, Joh Birch and Fred Phelps are going to wage a full campaign against mass transit, so the Wake Board should be pro-active.

This area is going to double in size and I-40 isn’t getting any better.

JeffS
02/15 06:02 PM

Fairly recently, Charlotte had a vote from people trying to repeal the transit tax. It failed 70/30.

That’s not too surprising given the makeup of the county. The school system policies there are adding to the sprawl as well as people move further and further out of town in search of a “good” (why don’t they just say white?) school.

ct
02/15 09:36 PM

Raleigh isn’t downtown-centric like Charlotte and never will be. Mass transit may have a role here, but given the current political outlook I’m not surprised that it won’t be brought to a vote this year. Progressives had better focus on the Raleigh municipal elections in November before they get too excited about 2012 or beyond.

Lucius
02/16 01:12 PM

Waiting for Raleigh to arrange itself so that light rail lines are a good fit is the wrong idea.  Raleigh has been very downtown-centric for the past decade and that effort continues via Mitchell Silver, the Planning Dept, and a large shift in demographics that gravitates toward higher density.  Charlotte became downtown-centric because city and corporate leaders pushed for mass transit and that spurred over a billion dollars in development projects along their light rail lines.

ct
02/16 02:45 PM

Just because the Raleigh city council and staff have been downtown-centric doesn’t mean that developers have followed their lead. Despite the RBC and Progress Energy buildings, I’d bet that 75% of new commercial/industrial real estate inside the city limits over the last 10 years has been built OTB. For residential property, the number is probably 90%. Sprawl continues regardless. If you think that demographics of Raleigh have really flipped in favor of downtown, you’re not driving around enough OTB.

TVD
02/17 01:07 PM

Let’s remember that a transit system is a development generator, just like a highway system.  when the beltine was constructed, each of its’ nodes became development points. where the transit goes, development can follow, not the other way around.  A good system takes years to develop and construct- now is really the time to get started.  If our first steps need to be modest-  a line from downtown to the fairgrounds, perhaps- then so be it, but let’s not fool oursevles into thinking that today’s sprawl, built over the last 50 years, is an indicator of how folks will want to live in the next 50 years.

ct
02/17 01:31 PM

The counter-argument is that a billion-dollar transit system in Atlanta did not stop the continuation of sprawl. It did, however, keep downtown Atlanta from becoming completely irrelevant to metro Atlanta. So that’s a good reason. Of course, MARTA also enabled inside-285 developers to make a killing… which is what they wanted all along, and that’s also what the Raleigh ITB real estate interests expect to get from a transit system. This is a free-market economy so there’s nothing inherently wrong with self-serving interests, but let’s not kid ourselves that everyone promoting transit for Raleigh is motivated by altruism.

JeffS
02/17 01:47 PM

ct, some people just like driving… or the suburban lifestyle. In some ways, the rail in Atlanta is an enabler of sprawl. I know quite a few people in Atlanta who drive in to a rail stop. If the rail weren’t there they would not be willing to live as far out. Either way, between the train, buses and a relatively widespread zip car system, it’s feasible to not own a car there.

Developers make money regardless, whether they’re building strip malls or multi-use developments.

ct
02/17 07:34 PM

I lived within walking distance of a Marta station; my wife and I rode it to work sometimes. Georgia has more counties (159) than North Carolina (100). The fragmentation of Georgia made it easier to get voter approval for Marta taxes in the two core counties, Fulton and Dekalb, even though all the other metro counties rejected it. The problem in Wake County is more challenging. For a tax to pass here, it will have to win a majority throughout Wake—despite the fact that many/most people in Wake won’t be served by it.
Developers everywhere make money or they go bust. My point was that developers with interests ITB are promoting transit for their own enrichment, even though they probably all live in the suburbs and wouldn’t be caught dead on a train.

susan
02/18 10:30 AM

There is no way the transit could pass this year. The vast majority of the voters will not be able to use transit to commute. The transit planners have done very little planning for the bus system, the only way most people (including most people inside the beltline) will be able to use transit. It may reduce congestion on Hillsborough street, but not on many other streets and highways. I-540, Wade Ave., I-40, and others will not be affected. So very few people will see any reduction in congestion.

With all the budget cuts and the continuation of part of the temporary sale tax likely, I don’t think people will vote to increase their tax for project that will do them no good.

susan
02/18 10:36 AM

JeffS,
The majority of people like what may be called “the suburban lifestyle”, that is, a single family home on a lot, surrounded by grass and garden. If neighborhoods in Raleigh (most of which are single family homes on lots) urbanize with multifloor condos and apartments, more people will flee to the outer suburbs to keep that lifestyle.

JeffS
02/18 12:17 PM

I’m thinking that what they “like” will start to change dramatically as the supply/demand curve of petroleum continues to trend in a negative direction.

You can serve single family homes with transit, just not with the neighborhood layouts we’re choosing, and not when you insist on separating the neighborhoods from the core with miles of low-density divide.

ct
02/18 02:48 PM

People who live in North Raleigh and work in RTP (for example) can respond to higher gas prices in many ways. One, they can buy new cars that are more fuel-efficient than their SUVs. Two, they can ride TTA. Three, they can carpool. Four, they can telecommute. Five, they can negotiate a 4x10 work week. Not everybody can use every option, but most people will have at least one or two options available to cope with $5/gallon gas. The suburban lifestyle won’t abruptly end. 
Improved TTA/CAT service would be good step to take before throwing a billion dollars at a rail system. It’s not just a question of adding bus routes and increasing frequency; we need bus shelters, sidewalks, park-and-ride lots, etc.

JeffS
02/18 03:25 PM

Oh, so we should add infrastructure to accommodate people who did not make it a consideration when they purchased their houses?

I’m all for adding services, but the money needs to be spent where it will serve the most people.

There are a lot of people in Raleigh who base their housing choices around bus routes. They have to. There are a lot more that will wish they had. And no, they won’t be the NR family with RTP jobs. They will be the people selling you gas, clothes, groceries. They are driving in from Fuquay, Benson, Garner, Eastern Wake every day and $5, $10, $15 gas will have a huge impact on their lives.

But hey… I could be all wrong. A lot of people should hope so, because by the time it’s painfully obvious to everyone, we will be decades behind on restructuring.

150
02/18 03:31 PM

@ct:  I’ll wager that, for the most part, the people living in North Raleigh who work in RTP can afford $5/gallon gasoline without it being a significant hardship (although you have my guarantee that you’ll hear the bitching and moaning).  So, I agree with you, the suburban lifestyle won’t change here. 
Now, what about those who earn much less, live in apartments, have less flexible jobs, and still drive to their jobs?  I suspect $5/gallon gasoline can have an impact there.  Perhaps one of the consequences will be people choosing to move closer to where they work, or becoming more supportive of, and inclined to use, mass transit.  If the price of owning a car gets to be high enough, then the scales may tip.  Perhaps higher density, shorter commutes, and a financial realistic system becomes reality.
Raliegh isn’t there yet.  Not even close.  I hope that it does get there eventually. 
I know it won’t happen, at least for a while, but I can see a lot of good, environmentally, socially, and in foreign politics, with higher gas prices.  I fully support it.

ct
02/18 07:10 PM

The last time I looked at the numbers, north Raleigh zip codes had a higher percentage of residents in apartments than any of the ITB zip codes. In other words, it’s a myth that north Raleigh is nothing but free-standing homes on R-4 or R-6 lots. People here would ride the bus if they could. It really frosts us when the City spends millions on sidewalk upgrades along Hillsborough Street while there is a a stretch of Creedmoor Road—which was widened nearly 20 years ago—that doesn’t have a sidewalk on either side of the road. A major thoroughfare by anyone’s definition, and the only way to get to a CAT stop on that portion of Creedmoor is to walk through the mud. So, pardon us if we’re a little skeptical of the City’s intentions to spend nine-figure sums on mass transit.

CX
02/18 11:30 PM

Rail Mass Transit takes years to plan. Although it is proven to be an altogether good thing, I think that it is hard to make the initial steps needed in Raleigh and the Triangle because of shortsightedness, polycentrism, geographic spread (Wake County), among other things. What hasn’t been talked about a lot is the role of 540 in undermining public transit. In my opinion in Atlanta, a focus on highways has decreased the value of MARTA rail for many, including the outlying counties that never joined. Only after having 5-6 lanes in a lot of places around the Metro area have transportation officials decided to use other measures to manage congestion. Outside of rush hour the highways are pretty empty. It doesn’t make sense to build the extra lanes or highways for those few hours. A well managed transit system is much more effective. The time is now to plan for a future with a greater population.

ct
02/19 12:44 AM

You’re right that 540 was a game-changer, although we can debate to what extent. 540 arose from the basic and justifiable need to get people from north Raleigh to RTP. Jobs in and around RTP and RDU powered this area for a long time. Traffic between north Raleigh (impervious to mass transit) and RTP (equally impervious to mass transit) had become a real problem by the mid-1980s. From that perspective, I don’t think building 540 was a bad idea. Of course, 540 was then seen by some developers and politicians as a key to unlock real estate values in east Wake. That’s when things started to get out of hand… in the same way that widening 40 and US 1 drove growth in Apex, Holly Springs, etc.

susan
02/19 10:41 AM

cx,
I-540 had NO effect on the plans for mass transit.

Most of the planning at this time is for rail that will follow the existing rail lines through Cary, NCSU, to near downtown.

I-540 allows people in the eastern part of the county to get to the western (RTP and RDU areas) without driving through the city. It also serves the neighborhoods of north and north west Raleigh.

The majority of the people in North Raleigh will not live within an easy walk of a bus line, and will not be going to a destination on a bus line, and at a time the buses are running. Hence, they will be driving and will need a road to drive on. Before I-540 was opened a few years ago, the traffic on other roads was horrible. As Raleigh grows in that direction, it will get worse. Under current plans, transit will not serve as an alternative for the traffic on I-540.

susan
02/19 11:05 AM

For mass transit (bus or rail) to succeed in reducing the need for cars and roads, it must be able to get people from where they live to where they need to go (and not just work).

That means having bus lines within an easy walk (no more than 2500 feet) from each house and to each destination. If there was good bus service on every major road, that would not be enough. There must be bus service through out neighborhoods, and to places of employment, shopping, and entertainment.

We must also keep in mind that just having a bus run down a street is not enough. What if you live just off Wade Ave. and work downtown, and there was frequent service on Wade. Either morning or evening you will have to cross Wade to get to the bus or get from the bus to home. If you live near a traffic light, that will work. But most of the people don’t. I don’t think people should be expected to walk across Wade Ave. during am or pm rush hours. The same applies to many of the major roads in the area (Western Blvd., etc.)

We could build a bus system that will work in reducing congestion and fuel use, but it will take a tremendous investment in buses and bus stations (for people to change buses).

We could spend the same money in incent people (subsidize) to buy electric and hybrid cars. It wouldn’t reduce congestion but would save gas and reduce pollution.

Jonathan Parker
02/19 06:36 PM

Hi everyone.  I see there’s a healthy transit debate ongoing, which is good to see.  If you are interested in providing your input on future transit investments (both bus and rail), please come to one of the upcoming public workshops in March.  Plenty of supporting information (videos, planning documents, etc) is available at http://www.ourtransitfuture.com/  You .can follow the process and leave a comment on the website, Facebook, Twitter, or come to the meetings to provide your input.  Here are the dates and times, so let your voice be heard.  Oh, and please spread the word:

Tue, Mar 22, 4 - 7 PM | Triangle Town Center, space 1001, next to Dillard’s, Triangle Town Blvd, RALEIGH.

Wed, Mar 23, 4 - 7 PM | Durham Station Transportation Ctr, 515 W. Pettigrew St., DURHAM.

Thu, Mar 24, 4- 7 PM | The Friday Center, 100 Friday Center Drive, CHAPEL HILL.

Mon, Mar 28, 6 - 9 PM | Mt. Peace Baptist Church.1601 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd., SOUTHEAST RALEIGH.

Tue, Mar 29, 4-7 PM | Cary Senior Center in Bond Park, 120 Maury O’Dell Place, High House Rd. between Cary Parkway and NW Maynard Rd, CARY.

Wed, Mar 30, 4-7 PM | McKimmon Center, NCSU, 1101 Gorman St, RALEIGH.

Thu, Mar 31, 4-7 PM | RTP Foundation, 12 Davis Drive, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK.

ct
02/19 07:14 PM

Definitely the original TTA rail plan offered residents of north Raleigh who worked in RTP/RDU nothing whatsoever. For that matter, the current plan doesn’t offer them much.

I do believe that extending 540 to east Wake did affect the outlook—although not the plan—for mass transit in the sense that many of those folks living in new subdivisions of Knightdale, Wendell, Zebulon, and Garner would otherwise have settled in more densely populated areas of the county closer to the TTA layout.

As to whether electric cars actually reduce pollution, that’s a complex argument for another thread.

susan
02/21 11:39 AM

Jonathan,
Will this round of workshops consider bus transportation at the same level or greater level than it considered rail?

I attended the first two workshops. While there was a slight amount of discussion about buses, they were mostly about rail.

We need to know more about the possibilities for bus transportation. Has there been an analysis based on an origin/destination matrix to determine how many people will be able to use transit to get from home to work. The public needs to talk to someone planning the facilities about what is needed at bus hubs - I assume that many people will have to change buses on their commute.

I hope that this round will consider that for most people, their trip will be entirely by bus, and that the transit people will not focus just on rail.

ct
02/21 10:30 PM

Rail has sex appeal, or curb appeal, or sizzle, or whatever metaphor one chooses to use. Bus has none of those, but it would reach far more people at far lower capital cost.

susan
02/22 11:27 AM

ct: “Rail has sex appeal, or curb appeal…”

I agree. I would expect sex appeal to sell consumer products, everything from the undies I buy to expensive things like cars.

However, when our “City Fathers” (and Mothers) and other officials are planning to spend many millions on important infrastructure I expect them to look beyond the sizzle and look at things like the number of people helped and the capital costs.

They are not at the mall buying clothing. They are making plans involving a large amount of money and taxes that will have a major impact on our community.

lilpistolstarta
02/22 12:56 PM

If we really want to grow downtown Raleigh, in my opinion light rail is a great way to help do so.  I’ve been many places around the globe with and without some form of rail and those with, far exceed those without in my opinion.  Let’s take a place like Montpellier France (which I’ve been to)....their light rail system is quite simple yet highly effective.  Montpellier has less population than Raleigh, Montpellier - 265,634 (2009) vs Raleigh 394,774 (est. July 2010) respectively.  I’m neither a Civil Engineer nor a politician but what I do know is from my own personal travels, some form of rail does lead to a much more enjoyable/preferred way of transportation.  My $0.02.

ct
02/22 06:57 PM

Montpellier has a density of 4,670 persons per square kilometer. Raleigh’s density is 1,097 persons per square kilometer. Advantage, Montpellier when it comes to rail of any kind. I do agree that rail of any kind is more enjoyable than bus of any kind.

john404
02/23 08:16 AM

Yes, if the primary objective is to grow downtown Raleigh, light rail is a great way. However, it is paid for, and must be voted for, people across the entire county, most of whom do not have anything to do with downtown Raleigh.

The purpose of the transit program should not be to help any particular place but to allow people (wherever they live) to get from home to where they want to go.

For the vast majority of people, this will mean a bus system.

lilpistolstarta
02/23 11:24 AM

Agreed ct and john404….but you have to start somewhere, and sometime right?  Do we wait for the population density to drastically increase and then go, oh we should have started implementing the rail plan long ago.  I do agree the rail system as an eventual “system” should encompass as much of the population as it can, but you can’t do this right at the start.  I guess we can continue to grow the bus system that few desire to use and then once the population has grown severely past needing some form of rail then we can start building it 20-30 years too late.  On the whole taxes paid from folk across the county…yes, very true and I’m sure I pay for things in this county that don’t benefit me either.

ct
02/23 01:43 PM

lilpistolstarta is correct about the chicken-and-egg problem and also correct that taxes are often paid for which there is no direct benefit to a given taxpayer. But the political reality of mass transit is that there will be an up-or-down vote on a tax specifically for mass transit. That’s a very different dynamic from voters like myself who continue to pay property taxes for schools even though our children have graduated from WCPSS. The mass transit tax will be “naked” on the ballot, and some people will react to it with a what’s-in-it-for-me mentality. Make the transit system too small, and it won’t get enough votes. Make the system too big, and it scares voters away. This is a very tricky thing to get right, in a city that doesn’t currently have a traffic problem into downtown (unlike Charlotte).

hackles10
02/23 01:55 PM

I agree with Mr pistolstarta, the argument that tax dollars aren’t benefiting portions of the population is silly.  Downtown folk pay plenty for sprawl in the form or road maintenance, utilities, parks, infrastructure, police and emergency coverage, etc.  The rail system will eventually benefit the entire county in one form or another.  Even North raleigh folk or apex fold might eventually drive 1 mile to a station and take a train to the airport, or downtown, or to Durham/Chapel Hill, etc. without having to drive the 40 mile round trip.  Starting now is important, especially since “starting now” means actual trains being put on tracks 10 years from now.

ct
02/23 06:27 PM

Depends on perspective. Another way of looking at it: there is a massive transfer of tax income from outer Raleigh to downtown which has nowhere near the number of residents needed to pay for upkeep and renovation of its crumbling infrastructure. At least the developers are paying part of the cost for sprawl, although one could argue they’re not paying enough. If the rapid transit system actually offered a way for north Raleigh and north Wake residents to reach RTP/RDU—and it was RTP, not downtown Raleigh, that brought us here—then there would be support for it. But expecting us to take a one-hour train ride (one way) from Wake Forest through downtown Raleigh and downtown Cary to reach our jobs at RTP is a non-starter.

hackles10
02/23 07:17 PM

ct-
you can’t base downtown’s tax base purely residents alone.  Anyone who sets foot into downtown puts strain on the infrastructure. Resident, business owner, patron, concertgoer, museum/imax ticket buyer, and festival attendee alike all put wear and tear on downtown creating a need for
“tax dollars” to keep it up the “crumbling infrastructure”.  Also, with all of the bars, restaurants, shows, concerts, festivals, etc. I would gather that downtown proper has a much larger net tax benefit than most suburban neighborhoods.

ct
02/23 07:29 PM

Hackles10, you’re exactly right. Raleigh has a disadvantage because the most valuable real estate in downtown is owned by an entity (the State of NC) that doesn’t pay property taxes. That’s why most state capital cities have a net flow of tax dollars into their downtowns. Raleigh isn’t alone in that regard. I just object when downtown residents complain that their taxes are supporting sprawl, when the reality is that despite the business taxes that are generated in downtown, the net flow of tax dollars in Raleigh is inward not outward.

hackles10
02/23 07:37 PM

I hope that the “area” as a whole gets better as we develop and grow.  As a downtown resident, I get tired of all of the people that talk about downtown as if its a wasted subsidy.  There are plenty of things in both suburban wake county and downtown Raleigh that soak up tax dollars and aren’t applicable to a large percentage of residents.  Just as I hope that a new public safety center is built, I hope that areas of north raleigh get better, and that apex gets new infrastructure, and that parks, trails, schools, office buildings, and new entertainment all expand and grow.  Its just silly for people from the ‘burbs to throw stones at downtown and vice-versa.  At the end of the day this rail system has to support the entire area.  There have been some pretty good mockups that include Durham/Chapel Hill, RDU/RTP, Downtown, and North Raleigh, with the ability for future expansion.  Just as I would love to take the train to RDU, or a Canes game from downtown, I would love to be able to go to Durham and back for a concert or dinner without having to drive.

Jonathan Parker
02/24 11:19 AM

Susan,

The answer to your question is yes.  In addition to more information on the potential rail corridors, there will be more detailed information on potential bus routes for this meeting.  Within Wake County, there’s been a lot of work done in the last few months on analyzing the potential bus networks with representatives from CAT, C-Tran, Wolfline, Triangle Transit, and the local governments and potential options will be on the table for your review and comment.  We’ll want to know whether there are any potential services that we missed as well your feedback on the top priorities for enhanced and new transit service.

Thanks for your interest and we hope to see you all at the March meetings.  Again, for more, please go to www.ourtransitfuture.com.

susan
02/25 12:35 AM

Jonathan,
Good. If I can’t attend due to travel, several of my friends will attend and get information to me. I will also submit written comments.

The key thing is the amount of coverage. Will most people in Wake County be able to get from home to work? Will someone outside of Rolesville be able to get to a store in Wendell?

Also, I realize that most people will have to change buses. Will they have to stand on the street corner or sit on a bench by the road, or will they be inside a lighted building? (in spite of global warming and drought, we will still have some nights with cold rain).

Another thing I want to learn about is the time the buses run. Many of the lower income people most in need of transit work in the evening (or worse).

I look forward to the meetings.

Jonathan Parker
02/27 03:01 PM

Susan,

Several of the proposed express bus routes that you will see would connect outlying communities in Wake County with transit-friendly job centers in Raleigh, and elsewhere in the region.  There are proposals to adjust routes and expand service hours for existing transit services as well as add new cross-town routes.  Elements like transit centers, shelters, benches, park & ride lots, real time arrival information, etc, will be included at various locations—particularly those with lots of boardings.  Again, a major component of the meeting will be to receive public comments on the proposed rail corridors, but there will be substantive information on proposed bus routes too, so we’d love to get your feedback on all of the information presented.

The feedback will assist staff in developing a series of scenarios or packages of investments that elected officials can evaluate for implementation.  Once a final investment package is developed, and a decision is made the county commissioners to hold a referendum, citizens will be able to vote on the package.  If the vote is positive, the investments will be implemented, with significant portions of the expanded bus service being implemented immediately.

I hope that helps.

susan
02/28 09:49 AM

Jonathan,
There are a number of questions I will ask at the meetings or in writing if I can’t go. I believe that you work at TTA, so maybe I can give you a preview:

1) What percentage of the public in Wake County will have transit as an option to commute to work? This assumes that the bus or rail is within 1/2 mile of their home or there is park and ride available. It also assumes that the individuals will have to walk no more than 1/2 mile from the transit stop to their place of work. I know that no one knows what percentage of people will choose to ride transit rather than drive, but what percentage will be able to have that choice?

2) What are the financial projections? How much money will be raised by the sales tax, what are the capital cost and the annual operating cost for the rail and for the transit?

We must be sure that the entire county will benefit from the transit. The entire county will be paying for it. I live in Cary and may be able to take transit to the airport (I fly alot). I have no problem paying taxes to benefit the less fortunate people who live in lower income areas but I have big problems asking people who live in lower income areas to pay more tax so people in higher income areas can get to work easier and more cheaply.

Jonathan Parker
02/28 12:03 PM

Susan,

Thanks for the great questions. 

#1 we don’t know the answer to at this point, because the investment package has not been determined.  Once it is, we can have a better chance at providing an answer… although it would be more likely that we would measure the numbers of residents living within 1/4 mile of a standard bus stop or 3 miles from a park & ride lot.  Precise data on access to jobs (paring households with the jobs they hold) is not widely available.

#2 we can provide for you at the meetings.  I can assure you that we are doing our best to ensure that the entire county would receive benefits from any new transit services.

Again, I hope that helps.