Public Policy Polling says the Council Races are Close

Polls: The Races are Close

September, 19, 2007, by David

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In anticipation of tonight’s candidate forum, the Public Policy Polling Blog has released the results of a recent survey of almost 900 Raleigh voters. You can read the full report here: PDF Report and PPP’s take on things here.

For or against Parks Bond:

For 60%
Against 27%
Undecided 13%

PPP Blog’s details are telling:

At-Large First Choice, Second Choice (Vote for 2)

Stephenson: 20, 7%
Baldwin: 16, 10%
Anderson: 12, 6%
Williams: 3, 2%
Tart: 2, 3%
Best: 2, 2%
Undecided: 46, 69%

Russ Stephenson and Mary Ann Baldwin have a clear lead for the two at-large seats on the city council, with Paul Anderson a clear third. However, neither is anywhere close to the 25% needed to avoid a run-off. If everyone voted for two candidates as they are allowed, Stephenson and Baldwin would currently have the support of 13.5% and 13% of the votes respectively. A whopping 57.5% of the vote is still up for grabs.

It also looks like in the at-large race, many know who they will vote for first choice but not as their second. 

District A

Craven: 38%
McFarlane: 25%

District B

Taliaferro: 35%
Koopman: 21%
Menendez: 8%

“Last year Raleigh raised the impact fee on newly built homes and businesses, taking the fee for a single-family home from 682 dollars to 1,170 dollars. Yet impact fees still pay for only 20 percent of new roads and parks projects required to support the new development, while the rest of Raleigh taxpayers pay the other 80 percent.  Do you think Raleigh should reaise the impact fee on newly built homes and businesses closer to the state wide average of 4,038 dollars per single family home?”

Support: 60%
Do not Support: 27%
Don’t Know: 12%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a city council candidate that supports raising the impact fee?

More likely: 54%
Less likely: 28%
No Difference: 18%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a city council candidate that received large donations from developers?

More likely: 5%
Less likely: 81%
No Difference: 14%

I find it most curious that candidates like Baldwin, Anderson and Taliaferro have such significant traction when so many said they wouldn’t support candidates with significant contributions from developers. Last week’s joint fund raiser by the three is said to have been something like a small real-estate convention.

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  • Dana
    09/19 07:37 PM

    Funny that 81% are turned off by Big Real Estate, yet they still support Baldwin.

  • David
    09/19 07:56 PM

    Exactly what I said in that last paragraph Dana, the weird formatting probably had you miss it.  Funny how Real Estate’s interests and Citizen’s interests do not intersect.  Who are these candidates representing?

  • ann
    09/20 05:21 AM

    Tonight’s forum, though useful, didn’t clarify these issues as much as I’d hoped. The projection of “neighborhood” concern and just-folks plausibility by Taliaferro, Anderson and Baldwin, was, as ever,an effective smokescreen against revealing who’s going to be in whose corner when chips are down. Lack of media attention to incumbents’ voting records thickens the smoke: Jessie can claim to have voted for higher impact fees, while she actually voted NOT to raise them enough to make any real difference in who pays for growth.
    Don’t be taken in by professions of love for neighborhoods. That’s now Raleigh’s equivalent of motherhood, apple pie and supporting the troops.

  • erin
    09/20 12:26 PM

    true, ann.  i sure wish they had a longer audience question session.  i could have done without the 2 minute closing for everyone.

  • Steve
    09/21 02:18 PM

    Dana, I agree it is scary that so many citizens plan to vote for Mary-Ann Baldwin despite the fact that she has collected six-figures from developers—that’s 400% more in campaign contributions than any other candidate in the at-large race has taken period.  As Councilor Russ Stephenson said, those special-interest contributors WILL expect a return on their investment.

    This election on October 9th is crucial because this Council will guide the development of the Comprehensive Plan, which will likely shape growth in Raleigh for the next 20 years.

    With only a few weeks to go before the election, people had better start looking at where the money is coming from before they accidentally vote against their own interests.

  • Chad
    09/21 03:05 PM

    Steve, I agree with you and the many others that know that Mary Ann Baldwin is not the candidate that will represent the general public over special interests.

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