Raleigh > Detroit
In 1959 Detroit was a bustling manufacturing center with abundant jobs that paid wages that made the American Dream a reality. In fact, Detroit’s was given area code 313 because it was quicker to dial on rotary phones. The city and state’s leadership had no reason to believe the auto industry would crumble and the dynamics of the local economy would need to shift for the area to survive. Detroit rested on her laurels and is now a city rotting in decay still struggling to retool its workforce and economy for the 21st century.
North Carolina was broadly different story in 1959. The state was the second poorest in the nation, and tobacco, textiles and furniture were about the only industries we had to speak of. Even our area codes (919 and 704) took longer to dial on those rotary phones. Our leadership, Governor Terry Sanford and UNC System President Bill Friday, understood North Carolina had no where to go but up and formulated a plan to get us there. RTP was the outgrowth of that vision, and it has successfully fueled our economy for the last 50 years.
The real question for Raleigh is “are we now the Detroit of 1959?” This is not to say our leadership is blissfully unaware that a shift is occurring in the region. Raleigh’s downtown renaissance under Mayor Charles Meeker has been a step in the right direction. In 2009 we must channel Governor Sanford’s bold vision and not be afraid to step on people’s toes to get thing moving the right direction. He was chided by his colleagues for creating “Terry’s Tax” to fund reform, but he was unmoved and continued to press forward on his education and economic reform agendas. So, in honor of Governor Sanford we should move boldly forward on these issues.
RTP is Dead
The Research Triangle Park is getting emptier by the day. The office vacancy rate has now skyrocketed to 27% in the park. The campus of Nortel that once housed over 8,000 employees now has a few hundred roaming the halls. Sony Ericsson’s 193,000 square foot facility now stands empty. The Park needs to become just that—a future North Carolina State Park. Our focus needs to be on attracting the companies of tomorrow to downtown Raleigh, and develop a plan to take many of the empty facilities in RTP out of service. If we move quick enough we could even stop the construction of the Triangle Parkway before we have a turnpike going through an empty forest between Cary and Durham.
Raleigh versus “The Triangle”
Does “The Triangle” really even exist anymore? As RTP empties out it begs the question of whether our region should be called the Triangle or just the Raleigh Metro Area. Projections are pretty clear that Raleigh will double in size over the next 20 years, with Durham and Chapel Hill will barely grow at all. That triangle is getting more lopsided by the day. Gastonia and Concord are huge suburbs of Charlotte, but does Charlotte feel the need to include them in their marketing slogans? No! If we really want to embrace the ideology that Raleigh > Charlotte then we must also embrace the notion that Raleigh > The Triangle.
Just Because You Build It, Doesn’t Mean They’ll Come
We’re not in Iowa and Kevin Costner isn’t mayor, and just because Raleigh builds it doesn’t mean they will come. There is no doubt that recent improvements have made downtown the cultural and entertainment center of the region. However, these improvements do not automatically translate into new jobs and corporate investment. The Research Triangle Park did not grow in a vacuum—it took careful and engaged planning. Raleigh has no real economic development plan, and it is irresponsible on the part of our city leaders to continue to sit on their hands. We have relied too heavily on magazine rankings and marketing gimmicks to attract new jobs. Raleigh must formulate a plan to attract and retain jobs if we want to be a vibrant city 50 years in the future.
There is no doubt Raleigh is a great place to live, work, and play. However, let’s not be complacent like the Detroits of the world. Fifty years ago we had the bold vision to move our region into the future. Let’s be bold today and take the steps necessary to ensure the future is bright for Raleigh.
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Mayor Meeker Raleigh The Modern Depression Economy Triangle RTP
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billt
12/11 01:29 PM
Hey Lee, check out the vacancies in the Wachovia and RBC towers…
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RaleighRob
12/11 01:37 PM
Interesting article with some unique perspectives. The last paragraph especially is one I can get behind…complacency is a bad thing for sure.
While I won’t yet say RTP is dead, it is definitely stagnant. I totally agree that future robust economic growth is more likely in downtown Raleigh and also downtown Durham. It just makes sense that educated professionals will be more drawn to an urban environment than a suburban office park.
Yes the Triangle still exists and even if Raleigh grows faster than Durham & Chapel Hill, it’s not just about growth necessarily. We have both historical and cultural ties to them, not to mention higher education. Besides…these days, I think most of us Raleighites have way more in common with Durham/Chapel Hill folks than we do with the increasingly conservative exburban Wake County areas. (If you’ve kept up with the recent drama on the Wake Board of Education and Wake County Commissioners, you’ll know what I’m talking about.)
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Kevin Davis/Bull City Rising
12/11 02:07 PM
Lee makes an interesting argument here. I’ll tackle some of the regional elements more soon at my own blog, but some quick points that I think are worth more immediate rejoinders:
1) No disagreement here about RTP needing to reshape itself. But a state park? Next to an airport and major population centers like Durham, Cary, etc.? And an airport? Whaaaa…? That’s a recipe for nothing but sprawl. Far better to see the core of RTP become a dense mixed-use district, generating taxes for the region and adding density in the region’s heart. Why on earth would we want to contribute more to our region’s notorious sprawl issues?
2) RaleighRob is right, urbanists have much more in common with each other than they do with the F-Vs, Wake Forests, Holly Springs, etc. of the world. To wit, you may find this interesting: http://www.bullcityrising.com/2009/02/the-challenge-of-regional-planning-next-verse-same-as-the-first.html
3) The “Triangle Parkway”—I assume you’re talking the EEC and NC540/147 extension here. You know, there’s no good connection N-S from the I-85 corridor to US 1. The completion of the US70/EEC/147/TriEx/540 (damn, that’s awkward) run opens up a very useful transportation corridor.
4) Wake Co. is disproportionately attracting suburban relocators, not urban relocators. http://www.bullcityrising.com/2007/05/durham_for_urba.html Something to think about in the long run: where will the creative class choose to live? Downtown Raleigh, yes—but also, downtown Durham and CH/C, also disproportionately.
This election sees Wake taking a turn towards divisive Sunbelt politics, of rich suburbs and impoverished cores, with power demonstrated in suburban areas that fight for local school control, local tax dollars, limits on annexation. I can’t see a Raleigh-centric region, if only for the fact that so much of the human capital it takes to _draw_ the best businesses still want to be able to access Durham/CH-C workforce members, too.
5) Durham vs. Wake growth. Ah yes, the “we’re growing like a fat man at a hot dog eating competition argument.” Durham is still slated for 40-50% growth over the coming decades. Our constraint: being upstream Falls and Jordan Lake. Of course, Wake Co. would rather develop a podunk place like Rolesville rather than preserving that land for a reservoir.
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Kevin
12/11 02:29 PM
What biotech and IT companies call Raleigh’s downtown home? I can’t think of any.
RTP’s vacancy problem is just a real-estate problem. You’re talking about a lot of ageing buildings, some with unrealistically high leases (Nortel’s). Some RTP companies are opting to build brand new buildings instead of expanding into existing. Check out Quintile’s beautiful new building on Page Rd.
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joe
12/11 03:21 PM
The term ‘Triangle’ needs to be killed.
How many great cities can you think of in this world that are called a ‘shape’? How many are ‘hypenated’?
Raleigh “metro” is ecliping 1,500,000 people with 1,000,000+ projected to live in Wake County. “Durham” needs to be dropped from this hypenation given they will only represent 10% of the metro population. Cary is liable to be larger soon.
Of course, changing the airport name would go a long ways to ‘killing the ‘triangle’ and ‘hyphens’ outsiders keep using.
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Ted Van Dyk
12/11 03:26 PM
Thought-provoking Lee.
The question of transit looms large in all of our plans for growth. RTP was concieved at a time when cars were status symbols, our roads were sparsely travelled, and gas was a quarter a gallon. Tom Murphy, former mayor of Pittsburg, has remarked that RTP is our greatest asset- world renowned as a center for innovation- and our biggest liability, as its’ phyicial reality is a suburban non-place, completely out of step with 21st century realities. It is a suburb on steroids, with huge office and research buildings plopped in the middle of expansive parking lots and woodland buffers. RTP can have a future, but it must be as a re-imagined as a dense, transit-linked, diverse and self sufficent entity that shares energy with surrounding vibrant urban centers.
TVD
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Nathania Johnson
12/11 03:51 PM
I’m not even sure why we’re comparing Raleigh to Detroit. Detroit’s problem is the auto industry. Raleigh is pretty diverse - and has adapted to change over time.
I think the perspective on RTP and Durham is disingenuous. As someone who has a Raleigh address but lives in Durham County, I get to experience the best of both worlds. There’s a ton going on in Durham and it keeps growing. The Durham Bulls (consistent champions), DPAC, Southpoint, downtown Durham, American Tobacco campus, Duke University, Ninth Street, etc. and so on - can’t be discounted.
Additionally, the growth of metro areas shifts about every 20 years, between urban and suburban growth. While the focus lately has been on urban development in both Raleigh and Durham (which is why it’s so easy for citizens of both cities to diss each other), in another 10 years the focus will be growing out again - and naturally RTP will become a hot area for development again.
The two cities are closer than ever geographically. But you’re gonna have to get out of trendy downtown to notice it.
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Jake
12/11 04:25 PM
While I agree with some of the core arguments here, I would be extremely hesitant to cast off Durham and Chapel Hill so easily. Anyone who thinks Raleigh is where it is today without the support from the rest of the “Triangle” is kidding themselves.
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RG
12/11 05:16 PM
Detroit has a skyline too!
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Nathan P.
12/11 05:35 PM
Thanks Lee. I have a friend that is a property manger in RTP area. He told me about a month ago that they are leasing space for $1 a square foot less than when the building was built. Sounds like the market is taking care of RTP for us.
We must centralize growth. One look at the RBC Center shows you what happens when you try to straddle the gap. Great facility—terrible location. Imagine the possibilities if that building was closer to downtown.
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SteelCity36
12/11 05:35 PM
I think the argument is more valid comparing Detroit to Charlotte. Raleigh has such a diverse economy whereas Charlotte is tied into Banking and just now trying to diversify with the banking crisis. When Wells Fargo consolidates its operations in San Francisco and Bank of America moves their headquarters to New York then Charlotte will be in serious trouble. All the downtown residents will be living amongst empty skyscrapers that developers have trouble maintaining due to a large rates of vacancy. Downtown residents will follow their jobs out of town or move to the suburbs to be closer to their new jobs at Lowes, Goodrich or the Nascar Shops resulting in downtown decay comparable to Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh in the 1970’s.
We in Raleigh can be thankful that we are the State Capital and that there will always be a major downtown presence of Government Offices, Lawyers and Lobbyists to keep the buildings occupied. Private industry is a big bonus to the area and will occupy the suburban office parks because land is cheap and plentiful.
We are the “Triangle” because we are an intertwined region whether you like it or not. I eat as much in Durham and Chapel Hill as I do in Raleigh. I attend sporting events in Raleigh, Chapel Hill and Durham. I go to the Progress Energy Center and DPAC. This is not unique as there is also Dallas-Fort Worth, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Tampa - St. Pete. We should embrace this regionalism because it makes us stronger and allows us to tackle the future united rather than 3 separate towns fighting for the same slice of the pie.
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richardfoc
12/11 05:52 PM
Is the writer really comparing Durham and Chapel Hill to Gastonia and Concord? The strength of this area of NC is due to the relative strengths of Raleigh, Durham AND Chapel Hill and to compare the last two to large suburbs is doing them a great disservice.
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Down and Out in Carrboro and Durham
12/11 07:10 PM
That has to be one of the most myopic and uniformed critiques of the Triangle region I have ever read. It is one thing to promote downtown Raleigh, I certainly do. It is quite another to be totally clueless about the economic factors that drive the region, including RTP, while advocating for an economic development plan. Did we attract new jobs because we had good magazine ratings, or do you think perhaps it might have been the other way around? You surely make that case that there certainly is no need for a regional transit system, with RTP dead and Durham and Chapel Hill functionally non-existant there isn’t any place to go outside of the city.
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ct
12/11 07:33 PM
If you think RTP is dead, I suggest you try to drive there in the morning rush-hour. Only somebody who spends all their time ITB would make such a ridiculous assertion.
Nortel (where I used to work) has been shedding buildings for years. Most of Nortel’s former buildings have been leased. It just takes a little time. Most of the buildings that IBM relinquished have been leased too.
RTP has always had a shifting employee base. It was begun by chemists (remember Astroturf?). Then Nortel and IBM and the EPA hired a lot of people, then Glaxo and Wellcome (still very much alive), then Ericsson, more recently Quintiles and Cisco and NetApp and Credit Suisse, etc. Fact is, companies come and companies go… unlike state government, without which downtown Raleigh would blow away.
Total employment in RTP remains high at 52,000 (employees and full-time contractors). If the restrictive covenants are finally removed, there is enough land out there to accommodate 5 times the number of workers.
The notion that these workers are going to flock into downtown Raleigh or downtown Durham is absurd.
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HT
12/11 08:42 PM
Raleigh > Detroit? No kidding. The first through sixth circles of hell are better places to live than most areas of Detroit.
However, even a third world city state like Detroit still manages to have better food, music, and cultural events than Raleigh. This blog just celebrated the opening of a Jimmy Johns for gods sake. Every middling four piece group of miserable bearded, plaid wearing hipsters get celebrated like local rock gods. Not to mention the Pistons, Red Wings, Tigers, Lio….Pistons & Tigers! All we have is that terrible excuse for a hockey team.
The municipal economy might be in much greater shape, but I’m still waiting for Raleigh to distinguish itself from every other vanilla, strip mall town in America. I love the revitalization of downtown Raleigh. But take a short drive outside the belt line and it’s just so damn boring. The Motor City has fallen a long way in the last half century, but at no time was it boring.
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Kevin
12/12 01:15 AM
@Nathan P
Why would you say RBC Center is a terrible location? It’s not downtown? Bah.
It has tons of access, tons of parking, and is adjacent to Carter Finley, allowing them to share facilities (video production, etc).
The only thing that really bothers me is the lack of buses running to events. I’d gladly take one in.
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ct
12/12 01:32 AM
From the perspective of the Canes, there is nothing wrong wuth the RBC Center location. It’s delightfully convenient to North Raleigh and Cary/Apex—where most of the Canes fans live.
Fact is, NCSU didn’t want the arena in downtown Raleigh proper; they drove the decision to build on their athletic complex, just like they did when Carter-Finlay replaced Riddick Stadium on the campus. The RBC Center site was decided a decade before the Canes entered the picture.
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Dan from Detroit
12/14 06:11 AM
Having grown up in and around the Motor City (specifically GPF/GPP) I’ve had the opportunity to watch the city fall from grace up close and personal. I moved to Raleigh two years ago for (gasp!) a better job, what a shocker eh? This article was very thought provoking and I certainly hope this metro area weathers an economic downturn better than my old hood. But as has been mentioned in previous comments - for all its faults the Detroit area is still a cultural hub for the region. Yes there are more sports teams and bars/clubs/restaurants in downtown and the surround but there’s also a much larger (albeit slowly dwindling) population center to support. There has been some attempts by Durham with the DPAC and other downtown Raleigh investments but there can always be more done. A far-sighted city plan can yield far greater results down the road i.e. Central Park in NYC. Imagine what would have happened if city planners hadn’t made allowances and had a good vision of the future, 150yrs later and it’s still a huge draw for tourism and a wonderful bonus for the city. What will save this region is an investment in technology and diversification of industry. Detroit failed at doing anything other than automotive manufacturing and resisted change when possible. The additional challenge of a strong racial divide also helped tear apart whatever chance of recovery it had. The movie 8 Mile was more accurate than most people think (grew up below 7 mile on the “good” side of Mack ave.). Raleigh and its surrounding neighbors need to be open to change and buoy local business when at all possible and avoid a lack of integration. I like it here but Detroit will always be home, maybe one day they’ll get their act together but not any time soon.
/my .02$
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RaleighRob
12/14 02:19 PM
@ joe: um, no.
If you think most Raleighites will embrace Cary—a sprawling “town” full of nothing but strips malls and cul-de-sacs, populated by Stepford Wives, Soccermoms and Tiger Woods-wannabes—as a closer sister city than Durham & Chapel Hill…..then you’re nuts.
Cary can inflate its population all it wants but, like the other Wake suburbs…it’ll never be a real City. -
smitty
12/14 03:27 PM
Raleigh and Cary are the same except for Raleigh has parking decks and bums.
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gd
12/14 03:32 PM
and to live in cary you must be beige like everything else.
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Matt
12/14 03:37 PM
I’m as big a fan/cheerleader of DTR as the next, and I hate sprawl, but RTP HAS to be a factor if this region continues to thrive. (And I include Raleigh in that.) I, for one, am glad to see news like this—http://www.wral.com/business/story/6610668/—that signify that RTP is most certainly NOT dead.
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CX
12/16 02:26 AM
This is a great discussion, and it is one that the leaders need to consider having. The region, and its individual parts, continue to grow as a region. I don’t think that separating the region is what is best. Defining the parts would be more appropriate. It just can’t be this big blob next to this other big blob and some other smaller blobs in between. While it seems Cary is fine with being a ‘town’, RTP should be branded as a city. I think that its very feasible to add residential, intellectual, and office density to the park. Along with more focused growth in downtown Raleigh and Durham, we will begin to have more logical transit centers that actually work.
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ct
12/16 06:47 AM
Strictly speaking, there is no residential development in RTP at all. The land that was acquired by the Research Triangle Foundation can’t be used for residential purposes—nor can it be annexed by a city, due to the legislation that created RTP. However, all the residential development that you see is on the periphery of RTP… and those tracts have already been or will be annexed by Apex, Cary, Durham, Morrisville, or Raleigh.
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Skillet
12/16 08:41 AM
Bob Geary had a nice piece on this issue last year - www.indyweek.com/gyrobase/Content?oid=oid:194737
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Jordan
12/18 01:13 PM
First, thanks to Raleigh Bob’s comment above. Cary will never be as close to Raleigh as Durham.
With that said, I have a few responses to the bashing of Durham in this article. I also want to state that I have nothing but respect for Raleigh. I am an NCSU graduate, and enjoyed my years in Raleigh.
This article states just because you build it doesn’t mean they’ll come. I would like you to refer to the DPAC, which has already made itself known in a little over a year. As soon as this place went up, the people poured in. I would also like for it to be known that Durham just passed Raleigh-Cary as a top-performing MSA. (http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2009/11/09/daily45.html)
This isn’t said to argue supremacy, I just think it shows how closely related Raleigh and Durham still are (Raleigh is still in the top 10). The performance of the cities would not be as great as it is without mutual cooperation.Furthermore, in defense of Durham, it is host to the Full Frame Film Festival through Duke University, possibly the largest documentary festival in the world, show-casing hundreds of films from around the world every year. With regards to creative culture, the American Tobacco campus is home to McKinney-Silver, one of the largest ad agencies in the country (formerly located in Raleigh) as well as the Art Institute of RALEIGH-DURHAM (not separate, and not including Cary. As sated above, beige is not a creative color).
Let us also look at Duke and UNC (yes it’s in Chapel Hill, not Durham). These are two of the countries top schools, and has consistently made great strives in medicine and science research, along with NCSU. In fact, I had many professors at NCSU that also were lecturers at one or both of the other universities, and I have seen Duke Medicine offices in Raleigh. This, again, is because of the mutual cooperation between the cities.
So again, this is not meant to argue for Durham supremacy over Raleigh, or vice versa. I believe Raleigh would not be as successful as it is without it’s brotherhood with Durham, and Durham would not have the turnaround it has experienced in the past few years without Raleigh’s support. This article is creating more harm than good by trying to divide Raleigh and Durham, which historically have worked together, making this region of NC so successful and attractive to those from the outside.
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roulette strategie
12/31 10:08 PM
Hey, ok, I get it, I guess - but does this really work?
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Donata Lewandowski Guerra
01/04 07:36 PM
I don’t think I would necessarily knock the people in Cary as being beige, at least the ones I know. Then again, one might argue that “the sons and daughter of Cary” are all living and thriving ITB and pulling their old ‘uns in.
In terms of past epochs that this time mirrors, I wouldn’t say “Detroit, 1959”, but more the Northeast during the Financial Panic of ‘70 (that’s in the 1800s). Or even approaching a period after 1929 (early thiries, USA).
As long as our country has devolved into one of consumers and service providers, we will continue to sink deeply. If every object we turn over in our households reads “Made in China” we have been completely conquered. Has anyone ever considered the cost to China and abroad of manufacture and their subsequent mark-up to us? That should be enough to clear everyone out of Kohl’s and Nordstrom.
Donata Lewandowski Guerra
Scribd.com/DLGuerra -
ct
01/04 08:35 PM
It all depends on which side of the equation you’re on, with respect to international trade. I spent most of my career working for a company that successfully exported products to China. Many US companies do likewise, but politicians can’t use those anecdotes to stir up the populace—so the focus goes to jobs lost, not jobs created.
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Donata Lewandowski Guerra
01/05 03:46 PM
I would love to know what we’re exporting now, let alone what we’re producing for our own citizens.
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ct
01/05 07:58 PM
US export data for October 2009 (latest available) is posted at
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf
$137 billion in exports for the month, compared to $170 billion in imports. Not as unbalanced as you’ve been led to believe?
Read through the report and you’ll see a breakdown of what’s being exported.
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